BIT 4405 EXPERT SYSTEMS KCA Past Paper

UNIVERSITY EXAMINATIONS: 2014/2015
ORDINARY EXAMINATION FOR THE BACHELOR OF SCIENCE
IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
BIT 4405 EXPERT SYSTEMS
DATE: DECEMBER, 2014 TIME: 2 HOURS
INSTRUCTIONS: Answer Question ONE and any other TWO

QUESTION ONE
a) Using examples distinguish between A priori knowledge and a posteriori knowledge
(6
marks)
b) Explain the features of an expert system (8 marks)
c) Expound on the expert system development stages (12 marks)
Explain the concept of production systems as used in expert systems (4 marks)
QUESTION TWO
a) Differentiate between inference and explanation (4 marks)
b) Describe the recognize-act cycles as facilitated by the inference engine (7 marks)
c) Discuss any three different areas of application of Bayesian system. (9 marks)
QUESTION THREE
a) Using a well labeled diagram, describe the structure of expert system. (12 marks)
b) Explain the following concepts
i) Expert system (2 marks)
ii) Artificial intelligence (2 marks)
iii) Turing test (2 marks)
iv) Knowledge-based systems (2 marks)
QUESTION FOUR
a) Discuss the need for heuristic reasoning in knowledge based systems 6 marks
b) Read the following scenario:
The function of a financial advisor is to help the user decide whether to invest in a
savings account, or the stock market, or both. The recommended investment depends on
the investor’s income and the current amount they have saved:
Individuals with inadequate savings should always increase the amount saved as their
first priority, regardless of income.
Individuals with adequate savings and an adequate income should consider riskier but
potentially more profitable investment in the stock market.
Individuals with low income who already have adequate savings may want to consider
splitting their surplus income between savings and stocks, to increase the cushion in
savings while attempting to increase their income through stocks
The adequacy of both savings and income is determined by the number of dependants an
individual must support. There must be at least £3000 in the bank for each dependant. An
adequate income is a steady income, and it must supply at least £9000 per year, plus 2500
dependant for each dependant
Required
Produce an AND-OR graph for the provided information (14 marks)
QUESTION FIVE
a) Explain the operating principle of the inference engine (8 marks)
b) Describe the three theories of probability as used in expert systems. (12 marks)

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